OH NO! We're All Going to Die...

Deadlier Second Wave of New H1N1 Killer Virus Is Coming Your Way Now...

Not Another News Media Frenzy!

For the last five years or so, once a year like clockwork, our favourite daily newspapers catch front-page killer flu hysteria. For a few weeks (until we get bored of reading it or another silly story comes along) we’re bombarded by prophesies of impending doom; warned that the final apocalypse is upon us. When the deadly scourge is an avian influenza strain, we can count on an extra special treat – a splendid colour portrait photo of a fine feathered duck or goose, whose shabby, ‘sick’ appearance bears an uncanny resemblance to Daffy Duck in flustered mode... “Suffering headline photo-calls!”

OK, we all understand the threat is real and things could get quite nasty for many of us, this fall. This is precisely why we really need factual and sober information, telling us what we can expect to occur, and what we can practically do to prepare and protect our communities. Now that would be real news! But what did we actually read?

One Flu Over the Goose’s Nest

This year offered unique tabloid scaremongering opportunities. The revival of an H1N1 swine flu substrain and accompanying body count in Mexico inspired a plethora of sensationalist doomsday scenarios.

What’s more, the high-profile Pandemic awareness programme, propagated by the World Health Organisation, ensured there has been an excess of serious health and medical information in the public domain. So for once, even the usually ill-informed tabloid hacks, could pepper their salacious scare stories with some carefully selected key facts.

Thus, a couple of historical references to the 1918/1919 H1N1 Pandemic, with its astounding 50 to 100 million, worldwide body count. Further, it is remembered this virus recurs in two or three waves, over the course of a year or so. In most regions, it was the ‘second wave’ that proved to be most deadly.

What the Papers Say

So even the more serious broadsheets couldn’t resist cutting-in on this opportunity...

“Swine flu: the worst is yet to come in autumn, warns Alan Johnson. Doctors are being warned to prepare for a second, "much worse" wave of swine flu hitting Britain in the autumn, the Health Secretary has disclosed... Alan Johnson said the current swine flu outbreak... That the lesson of past pandemics was that initially mild outbreaks had been followed by something ‘much more serious’....”

Said, The Daily Telegraph (John Bingham & Auslan Cramb, 3rd May 2009).

While in May, Google reported on alarming coverage in the Financial Times:

“WHO chief warns of second wave of swine flu... The head of the World Health Organization warned in a newspaper interview that swine flu may re-emerge stronger than ever even if the current outbreak appears to be declining.

Margaret Chan told Britain's Financial Times that an apparent decline in mortality rates did not mean the pandemic was coming to an end ... and a second wave may strike ‘with a vengeance... If it's going to happen it would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century’.”

Or:

“As swine flu wanes, U.S. preparing for second wave.

A report by the ... Trust for America's Health...found that... Recent cuts in public health departments have meant many did not have adequate resources to carry out flu plans.
It also found problems in plans for school closings and limiting mass gatherings, and even with a mild outbreak...emergency departments and other parts of the healthcare delivery system were overwhelmed.”

(From Reuters.com: Jun 4, 2009 EDT By Julie Steenhuysen)

As ever, there’s no shortage of eminent experts, prepared to leap at the chance to share their lofty theories with a wider audience...

Is it worth considering what Dr. Howard Markel, of the University of Michigan, has to say? “...There may be a case fatality rate of 1 or 2 percent and it doesn’t sound like very much, but seasonal flu kills about 35,000 a year (in the United States) and has a case fatality rate of .01 to .02 percent.” Dr. Markel is a professional expert on panic during pandemics, and has published several books on the subject.

And another very important expert:

“Dr. Jeffery K. Taubenberger, an influenza investigator in the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, said...

‘When it got cool enough to spread well, the virus exploded’.”

(Quotes JoNel Aleccia, for msnbc.com; May 4, 2009)

No News Is New News

There’s nothing new under the sun, as they say. Back in 1918, at the height of the government’s wartime propaganda campaign, the ‘patriotic’ press was always willing to back the government and war effort, by misleading and lying to us. This censorship of information during that pandemic, surely made things much worse; people were living (or dying) amidst this horrific plague, but nobody knew what on earth was going on around them. When newspapers did mention the influenza, it was to mislead people. The presses started a popular rumour concerning the origin of the virus; propagating that a U-boat sent by Germany’s Kaiser had smuggled the deadly virus into Boston harbour.

Facing the Worst, Better

Currently the virus has already reached pandemic status but killed only a relatively small number of people. Furthermore, its state has fortuitously remained stable, allowing a vaccine to be developed. Just a few weeks ago, scientists feared the strain might wildly mutate, perhaps becoming more lethal. But the real doomsday scenario is that the current virus will combine with another, different mutating substrain, to create a new, super killer strain. It’s certainly a scary possibility. But is it actually likely to happen?

According to a press briefing by UK Health Minister, Sir Liam Donaldson on 2009-06-25; the government “expects” the second wave to manifest one-of-three possible scenarios:

1. A recurrence of the last H1N1 virus.
2. A much more lethal strain of H1N1 virus will evolve.
3. A variant H1N1 strain will merge with another flu sub strain, creating a new super killer strain.

Yes and no, is the simple answer; by the mathematical rules of scientific probability, there is a reasonable likelihood of this third option occurring. But there is not a strong likelihood of a ‘super killer strain’ evolving, capable of affecting a worldwide body count comparable to 1918/1919. Well, not this time at least. Sooner or later, such a strain certainly will manifest itself. But this time around, those men in white coats, in their underground laboratories, seem to have managed to keep pace with the cunning gyrations of this pernicious virus.

Besides, while there remains much that today’s medical science can’t prevent, many more discoveries have been made that can help. Most importantly, there is a great deal we can do to empower ourselves, to prepare for and to confront this threat. That starts by understanding and learning the real facts about this menace. And when the ‘real’ facts are inconclusive, so be it; we are all the better equipped for knowing this.